Scottish Independence. Any chance of the truth ?

So the Scottish independence referendum is exactly a year away. The current polls indicate that far from being delighted with the prospect of independence, the majority of Scots seem to remain unpersuaded that it really offers them a better deal.

The ‘Yes’ side's average poll rating currently stands at 33%, while the ‘No’ side has a score of 50%. Around 17% say they do not know or are unsure about what they will do,

Things aren’t going to plan for Alex Salmond and his hopelessly inadequate deputy Nicola Sturgeon. They had hoped that by now, Scots would be embracing independence, galvanising the population to a ‘Yes’ vote whilst dismissing the unionist scare stories about losing jobs, EU membership, the pound and the armed forces. But it isn’t happening, according to a colleague of mine who lives up there, the Scottish press is full with warnings about pensions, benefits, immigration and debt levels if an independent Scotland occurred.

Alex and Nicola though dismiss it all as the scaremongering of the unionist press; indeed Mr Salmond said he no longer bothers to read papers like The Scotsman as he reckons they are biased. He needs to be careful because the rest of the UK press haven’t really got going yet. Once the militantly unionist papers like the Daily Mail, The Sun and the Telegraph get going proper, Alec and his crew are in for a fairly torrid time.

The truth is that many Scots have yet to be convinced that they need to leave the UK in order to improve their economic prospects. There are still too many imponderables, uncertainties, unknown unknowns.

It’s just like Ireland

No it’s not. Independence is a very novel concept for most Scots. Scotland has always been a willing participant of the union. Ireland had history on its side. There was a century of political nationalism before the Easter Rising of 1916 and the subsequent civil war that led to Ireland’s departure from the United Kingdom. In Scotland however, not only was political nationalism absent, but the Scots have always been enthusiastic British nationalists. Scots always regarded themselves as junior partners in the British Empire. They fought Britain’s wars, kept the books, ran the colonial administrations and evangelised the natives.

For years and years the Scottish Nationalists were going backwards electorally, it was only with the return of Salmond in 2004 from his self-imposed exile in Westminster that led to the 2007 breakthrough. The Nationalist Party landslide in 2011 wasn’t a vote for independence as such; it was a reaction against Labour’s poor performance in Holyrood. So it’s not really that surprising that the Scots are having difficulty getting their heads round the implications of independence.

The Inconvenient Truth Salmond isn’t telling Scots

The SNP are only shouting half the story, some of the things they’re fairly silent on are :-

• Faslane will remain sovereign UK territory.
• Scottish regiments will be disbanded.
• £80bn would need to be paid back to the UK for the RBS bailout.
• Scotland could be out of the EU and therefore no bailout funds will be possible.
• Scotland would probably have to keep the pound; therefore they can't change their interest rates.

And this just scratches the surface. From what I’ve seen and heard, Alex Salmond is an egotist who is hell bent on Scottish independence, but with no thought of the consequences of going alone, he thinks that cherry picking the good bits of the union will be acceptable, I’m afraid not Mr Salmond you want independence then take it 100% or not at all.

Assets and Wealth

I think it would be a shame if Scotland were to vote to be independent. However if they do, Scotland should have what it owns - oil from its waters etc. It should also own its share of existing liabilities such as the toxic bank assets.

Admittedly, there are so many arguments and counter arguments about the consequences and the wealth generated both North and South of the border that it is very difficult to take an informed view. My gut feeling however is that Scotland is simply not productive enough or rich enough to afford everything their proposing such as the free tuition fees; free prescriptions and free elderly care. England can’t afford that, how will Scotland ?

Currency

Watching the debate on Newsnight last night, Nicola Sturgeon said they wanted to keep the pound as their currency. I just don't see how that works. If the Bank of England decides to change interest rates then the Scottish Government will be forced to do the same. This could severely affect their monetary policies? I think it would be totally unworkable for Scotland to retain the Pound as it would cause chaos in the remainder of the UK. Scotland should have either its own currency or the Euro. An independent country can’t have its currency controlled by another country. There is a precedent for this - the split of Czechoslovakia - the Czechs and the Slovaks had their own crown. The Slovak crown immediately dropped in value while the Czech crown rose slightly. The Slovaks now have the Euro.

And what about the EU?

Another item that needs proper answers I’m afraid. The SNP don't accept, or won't admit, that a separate Scottish state would have to apply to join the EU. Also one of the rules for applying to join the EU is that you have to adopt the Euro. That is the law, so it may not be within the choice of an independent Scotland. If they do join the EU would an independent Scotland simply inherit all the UK's obligations, opt-outs, international treaties and everything else? If so, I’m sure that’d be fine, if not then Scotland probably has a problem.

Energy

No not the oil reserves but renewable energy. Scotland by the very nature of its landscape has one the best renewable energy potentials in Europe, and the world. Scotland is only utilising a tiny fraction of this energy potential. In future, as technology progresses, Scotland could benefit a great deal from such dependable resources given the many negative issues with fossil fuels. But the Scots must pay for it. Wind farms are ideal. But I’m afraid you won’t continue to receive a £150k per wind farm subsidy from the UK anymore. Therefore this nationalist policy of 100% of electricity to be supplied from renewable sources will either have to be subsidised by the new Scottish government or your bills will go up about, ooh 652%. 

Other Issues

Aside from issues such as currency, EU membership and how Scotland will raise money on the international markets (credit rating etc) we still have no idea on how UK-wide infrastructure and institutions will change in an independent Scotland. Will they be retained with some kind of cross-border funding arrangement or will Scotland set up their own with the consequent loss of economies of scale ?

If Scotland does achieve independence there are many many other ‘small’ issues that probably haven’t even been considered. It will be interesting to see what will happen to passports, presumably Scottish Brits will be allowed to keep their UK passports until they expire then will need Scottish ones? It'll be expensive to set up embassies etc but no doubt details like those have all been costed & planned for by the nationalists? Would British Driving Licences still be valid ? Would there need to be border controls? Lots and lots of unanswered questions !

Idealistic Rhetoric

Listening to Salmond you'd think that after independence there would be no debt, no unemployment, no homelessness, no taxes, plenty of oil for ever at higher prices than there has ever been, no hospital waiting lists, no wait for GP appointments and 100 other pie in the sky wishes.

On the vote ‘Yes’ side, too many people are playing the Nation card in this debate, telling people that if they are or feel Scottish they have to vote ‘Yes’. Again this is debasing the actual question and the importance of it to us all. This important life changing vote should not be decided by flag waving and idealistic rhetoric but by critical thinking with the actual facts.

I suspect the Scots don’t really want independence, they just want a better deal, but not at the expense of a messy divorce. If they do wish to be independent then we should wish them well, however I fear they will regret their choice. Maybe they need to go it alone for a while, but I would feel really annoyed if they then wished to return to the UK cap in hand (which I think they would). In addition, Scotland shouldn't be allowed to pick and choose which aspects of being in GB they like, it should be independence or union, not some fudged up mix of the two.