#HS2 Opposition Grows...and so it should!

Following on from my blog back in May which showed how I’d arrived at the conclusion that building HS2 was not a good move for the country, things have become even clearer. Namely the cost has gone up considerably, there’s now more and more opposition from senior politicians and industry, Labour’s support has been weakened and now linked directly to a £50bn cost cap. As they start to lose the argument, pro HS2 groups have also changed their argument from one of quicker travel to increased capacity.

In June, transport secretary Patrick McLoughlin told the Commons that the cost for the full Y-shaped high-speed rail network linking London, the Midlands and the North had been revised upwards to £42.6bn. When you include the cost of rolling stock, the total cost is now estimated at £50.1bn, though recent research suggests the final figure could be far closer to £80bn. Reports in the Financial Times are suggesting that Treasury officials are already preparing for an overspend of £31bn on the project. Given Central Government’s history of underestimating capital infrastructure projects the £80bn looks increasingly like a minimum a figure.

By the time HS2 is built it'll more likely than not, end up costing 6 times what the current estimate is. This always happens with these sorts of projects. The private sector comes in with a disingenuous low bid to win the work. The Government snaps it up. The Government then demand change after change to the scheme, private sector costs each change increasing their profits along the way, suddenly it's too late to do a U turn, the construction costs continue to go up and up and we’re left holding the bill.

Institute of Directors

The Institute of Directors is the latest body making calls for HS2s cancellation. Their director general called for the Government to abandon the project, branding it a "grand folly". Simon Walker spoke out in light of their own research suggesting businesses are not convinced by the economic case for HS2.

Supporters of the key rail link to the capital believe it will provide northern towns and cities with better business opportunities.  However the survey of IoD members found that just 27% feel the high-speed rail project represents good value for money and 70% say the scheme will have no impact on the productivity of their business.

Commenting on the research, Simon Walker said: "Businesses up and down the country know value for money when they see it, and our research shows that they don't see it in the Government's case for HS2. Some of the specific claims that the Government has used to support its economic case for the project have been challenged by our members, who by and large do not feel that their business will benefit. Overall there appears to be little enthusiasm amongst IoD members, not even in the regions where the benefits are supposed to be strongest. Indeed, our research shows that almost every region expects London to benefit the most.”

"The IoD cannot support the Government's current economic case for HS2 when so many of our members are doubtful of the benefits. We agree with the need for key infrastructure spending, but the business case for HS2 simply is not there. The money would be far better spent elsewhere and in a way that will benefit much more of the country. Investment in the West and East Coast main lines combined with a variety of other infrastructure projects would be a far more sensible option. Our members support increased investment in other aspects of our road and rail network, citing this as more important than investment in HS2. 80% feel that investment in existing intercity rail services should be a priority, with just 41% saying the same for investment in HS2. 63% believe the money should be spent on other transport projects. Station upgrades, inter-city improvements, tunnels, electrification and capacity improvements should all be considered alternatives.”

"It is time for the Government to look at a thousand smaller projects instead of falling for one grand folly”

I couldn’t put it better myself Simon!!!

Mandy and Darling Re-appear and Labour backtrack

Last month I found myself actually agreeing with something that came out of Peter Mandelson’s mouth then last week low and behold, the guy who started the whole ball rolling, ex-Chancellor Alistair Darling warned of a potential "nightmare" on England's existing railways if HS2 is built, he says he's now changed his mind because he thinks the business case for HS2 has been exaggerated and argues that there are better ways of encouraging growth outside London.

Labour heavyweights tried to weigh in, albeit not very heavily. Asked if Labour would continue to support the project, Ed Balls is quoted saying "We have consistently supported plans for a north-south rail link but it's got to work, it's got to be value for money. There will be no blank cheque from a Labour Treasury." Labour leader Red Ed went on to say he is a "supporter" of the HS2 rail project but it should be scrutinised for "value for money".

The Capacity Argument

The railways are not full to capacity. Virgin trains were on average 50% empty, since the carriages were expanded it's nearer 30%. It’s only the cheapest trains that are full. Long distance rail demand fell last year. Yes, there is a capacity issue in some parts of London and the South east commuter lines but that's little to do with a train to the North. Why spend £50bn of tax-payers money marginally improving a service for a small minority of people.

Instead of spending £50bn, capacity at the southern end should be increased. The 34miles of Great Central Line between Calvert & Rugby (inc. a freight link to Banbury) could be re-opened for about £400-500m. This line would be able to support 140mph running of tilting trains and would provide the relief to the WCML south of Rugby.

Upgrade the existing Chiltern / ex GWR mainline through the Chilterns (London Northolt Junction - Banbury - Leamington - Birmingham Moor Street). This could easily become the mainline between these two cities - taking pressure off the WCML.

How about re-opening the ex GCR mainline from a new triangular junction to the south of Leicester (Narborough) - through to just north of Aylesbury (Claydon). This could take the freight trains off the WCML southern section.

See there’s lots of cheaper ways to free up capacity instead of HS2

Fares and how much we’ll subsidise HS2

Give the capital investment of £50bn will have to be repaid, the fares will inevitably be pitched at such a premium level that no one will be able to afford them. It's already cheaper to travel by car or plane to most places so HS2 trains will make this even worse.

£50 Billion works out at £3k per working household, if it reaches £80bn that's almost £5k per household in extra taxes to pay for something that will benefit very few people. As rail travel accounts for only 3% of all journeys and long distance even less, the subsidy per user for HS2 will be massive.

So a key question with HS2 should be: will it benefit everyone or just the wealthy?

Will people who pay their taxes (but will not be able to afford to use the service) subsidise people who can afford to avoid paying taxes to travel first class? Are we simply advocating a tax-payer-funded first-class service for the well-heeled to commute from their second/third homes to London more easily?

Don’t forget, they told us that there was a real need for a M6 toll road, of the 72,000 vehicles a day they predicted, less than half use it now. The £2 for a car in 2003 is now £5.50. Will HS2 be a similar story?

How about slowing the existing trains down and put more on the track and then cut the fares. Cheaper fares are what people really want, not walk on fares of over £200! Look at Stagecoach Megabus they take 4hrs 30 to London from Manchester but cost about £10 they can fill their 80 seat coaches very very easily.

Not everyone wants speed they want a low cost way to travel HS2 does not offer any of this.

We Don’t Actually Have The Money

A particular hobby horse of the opponents is how else we could spend the £50bn (or £80bn). The best alternative for the £50bn though is NOT spending it at all. And not borrow it either. It is wrong to look at this as if there was some earmarked pile of cash. There isn't, we’re borrowing it. Each infrastructure spending plan should stand on its own merits, and get investment commercially based on its prospects.

You have to ask; if there is such a big opportunity here, why is the private sector not investing in HS2?  Well quite simply they’ve learned lessons from things like the M6 Toll Road and see HS2 for what it really is. It’s a pity our politicians haven’t learned any lessons isn’t it?

SHOCK HORROR - Politicians get it wrong too

Politicians are obsessed with spending money, yours and mine. We're not yet completely out of a recession and they're already hell bent on spending a load more on a train set. They don't really care what it's being spent on, just so long as it's plenty more than the last time. Remember our generous and ill conceived foreign aid policy?

Nowadays we cannot sustain and equip our Armed forces due to cost. Our National Health Service is no longer coping with no money available. The elderly are receiving sub-standard care because it is too expensive. Yet suddenly we have £50bn for the HS2 rail link? Who’s kidding who? Sometimes I doubt my own sanity when £50bn can be tossed around like this yet we have no Fleet Air Arm, no fixed wing aircraft carriers and only six destroyers in our navy! Every single member of the army will soon in their entirety be able to be accommodated in Old Trafford.

On top of that, the vacuum at the heart of Cameron's airport policy and the fact the lights will go in 2023 if we don’t build power stations, is far more important than HS2 or even extra capacity on the West Coast. These would benefit the entire nation rather than just a tiny metropolitan elite.

White Elephant

At the end of the day, HS2 is a complete white elephant that we can’t afford. It’s perfect for places like China where distances between cities are huge, not so in our cramped and crowded small island. 

People compare us with Germany and France but they too are far larger countries and have more space to build. Those arguing that we must have it to keep pace are utterly misguided. Being able to get to Birmingham from London 30 minutes faster is not a reason to rip up huge chunks of countryside and displace thousands of people. You want to get to Birmingham quicker? Get up earlier.

The argument against HS2 has now matured. It’s been a long time since the HS2 antis have relied on NIMBY arguments (they rarely mention them now), since the economic argument that HS2 is a white elephant vanity project is enormously strong. More and more of us can see the emperor has no clothes.

It’s about time a tough decision is made to can this nonsense for good, and spend the vast and over growing price tag on small and highly targeted projects across the whole country. Imagine how many useful transport capacity improvement projects could be completed for £50 billion.

I'm a great believer in trains as a form of travel. As I said in my previous HS2 blog, I'm an engineer that thinks HS2 is an inspiring project. BUT I'm also a realist. With modern communications technology, HS2 is the wrong answer; it’s a very costly white elephant that our children and grand children will still be paying for long long after it’s finished.