Yet again the Government continues to stall on investing in the Power industry, putting off something they really needed to have done 10 years ago. They continue to play short term party politics when they should be thinking about what we need in 2023.
Why you may ask, am I worried about this, its not like they'll be power-cuts like in the seventies, the lights aren't going to go out ? Well, when you understand what's happening now maybe you'll be as concerned as me. I know its boring, but here's the FACTS :
UK Power Generation is currently in the region of 40,000 MW and is expected to rise to 70,000 MW to satisfy rising energy demand in the immediate future. That sounds reasonable to me.
Now how is the current 40,000 MW generated ? Well it is currently roughly split as follows :
20% Nuclear
25% Gas
40% Coal
10% Renewables
5% Other (eg energy from waste)
Coal
Now let's first look at the largest contributor, coal. At the beginning of the year, these were our remaining coal fired power stations, and what they generate :
Aberthaw - 1500 MW
Cockenzie - 1200 MW
Cottam - 2008 MW
Didcot A - 2000 MW
Drax - 3870 MW
Eggborough - 1960 MW
Ferrybridge - 1995 MW
Fiddler's Ferry - 1961 MW
Ironbridge - 970 MW
Kingsnorth - 1940 MW
Lynemouth - 420 MW
Ratcliffe - 2000 MW
Rugeley - 1006 MW
Tilbury - 1131 MW
West Burton - 1972 MW
Wilton - 197 MW
TOTAL - 26130 MW
Now, as a consequence of pollution restrictions introduced by the EU the owners of a number of coal fired power stations have chosen to opt out and to close their power stations altogether rather than upgrade their pollution controls. So far the following are effected :
Cockenzie - Closed 15th March, 2013
Didcot A - Closed 22nd March, 2013
Ferrybridge - Will close by 31st March, 2015
Ironbridge - To close by end of 2015
Kingsnorth - Closed 28th March, 2013
So that's 8105 MW generated of our 40,000 MW demand already closed or about to. Remember that figure. Let's now look at Nuclear
Nuclear
The UK currently has 15 nuclear reactors in eight nuclear power stations (detailed below). All bar one of these existing nuclear power stations have scheduled closure dates between 2016 and 2023. They are
Wylfa 1 - shutdown September 2014
Dungeness B1 & 2 - shutdown 2018
Hartlepool 1 & 2 - shutdown 2019
Heysham I-1 & I-2 - shutdown 2019
Heysham II-1 & II-2 - shutdown 2023
Hinkley Point B 1 & 2 - shutdown 2023
Hunterston B 1 & 2 - shutdown 2023
Torness 1 & 2 - shutdown 2023
Sizewell B - shutdown 2035
These power stations contribute c13,000 MW of power. With all the shutdowns, by the end of 2023 that's another 12,000 MW down.
Getting the picture ?
So are you starting to get the picture, just looking at the closures of coal fired and nuclear power stations in the next ten years, we're losing over half of our CURRENT generating demand.
So what we doing to build some new ones ?
Well at the moment, nowt !!
On the 26th March, 2013, the Government published a strategy paper which stated that the nuclear industry has plans for 16 GW of new nuclear power stations by 2030. This equates to 12 new nuclear reactors at five sites, these being : Hinkley; Moorside; Oldbury; Sizewell and Wylfa. The first of these was supposed to be on-line by 2018, it won't be, these things take ten years to build and they still can't agree the funding, the strike price or (in the case of Wylfa and Oldbury) the reactor design. So, realistically, don't expect to see the first one live before 2025.
All of this begs the question where will our power come from in 2023 ?
Coal Fired, Carbon Capture and Storage ?
Government is expected to discuss terms for front end engineering design STUDIES for the Peterhead Project in Aberdeen and the White Rose Project at Drax. However a final construction investment decision is not expected until 2015. Best not count on that then.
Energy from West Schemes ?
Lots of schemes around but persistently held back by planning restrictions and a general NIMBY attitude from people who don't understand (or don't want to understand) how they operate. To be fair, I wouldn't want one in my back garden either. The schemes that get built will contribute but only to replace some of the power lost through the coal fired closures.
Wind farms?
Wind farms in the UK currently generate c1900 MW of power, growth capacity is deemed to take us to around 8800 MW. So assuming this actually happens, (and there's no current indication that it will or even that we're willing to invest heavily) then that's the coal fired power stations that have closed to-date replaced. But its still not enough.
Solar ? Wave ?
Small fry in the whole scheme of things without significant capital reduction and technological development they aren't going to fill the gap.
Gas ?
This is the obvious short term fix. With the buoyant activity in the upstream oil and gas sector and the potential 'fracking' of shale gas, the immediate future points to the construction of gas fired power stations and gas storage facilities. A number of gas fired power stations are currently under consideration, though not enough.
SO WILL THE LIGHTS GO OUT ?
Unless the Government wake up and smell the coffee then YES, the lights will be going out after 2023. Sure, we might be able to eek out another couple of years out of the existing nuclear power stations but that's just delaying the inevitable.
If attitudes to energy from waste schemes and to fracking of shale gas changes then we can narrow the generating gap. So will greater investment in new gas fired power stations and wind farms but it still won't be enough to feed our burgeoning demand for more and more power.
The only real solution this country has is start to build the new nuclear power stations now, not in five or ten years time but now. Government are so adamant that they're not funding these power stations that they're even talking to the Chinese about them taking a 20% stake in Hinckley Point.
How on earth have we got to this stage where most of our power companies are foreign owned (including foreign governments) and we have to go cap in hand to the Chinese because we can't afford to build one nuclear power station by ourselves. Provision of our utilities should have remained the states responsibility, as far as I'm concerned, selling it off was a mistake of the Thatcher Government that's come back to haunt us. Labour side stepped the issue when they were in power leaving it to this lot to imply their sorting it whilst they're really dithering and U-turning over it. Show some balls Dave and get it sorted.
Will the last person to leave the country please turn out the lights ? Presuming they're actually still on !!!
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