Monday 10 June 2013

Risk. A Risky Business If We Want Growth


Throughout history, one thing you could never accuse the UK of was not being an innovator, we were the great inventor. Over the years so many items that we now take for granted in our day-to-day existence, have come through British invention and engineering such as : 


  • The Telephone
  • The Train
  • The Jet Engine
  • The Electric Motor
  • Radar
  • The Light bulb
  • The Computer AND the World Wide Web
We invented materials too, including :
  • Cement
  • Stainless Steel
  • Carbon Fibre
 In medicine we pioneered :
  • Penicillin
  • Hip replacements
  • Vaccines for smallpox and typhoid
  • Test tube babies
In recent years the medical developments have carried on, bio-science development is growing and is being actively funded by Government. Similarly materials development has continued, the discovery of Graphine being the most recent example. However, what has happened to innovation and invention in our engineering sector? The ‘Made in Britain’ stamp has disappeared along with the decline in the country's manufacturing base and this is now stalling economic growth.
World Beaters
After the war we were truly world class, with the development of things like the jet engine and the computer. We developed true examples of world leading engineering but we always failed to maximise on their sales. Other countries often took our basic design and developed it into something with world beating sales that should have been ours. Even when we really had something unique such as the Harrier jump-jet and Concorde we still failed. Why ?
Quite simply, we developed things for our own use, to our own specifications rather than to something more general that the whole world would buy. Best example of this is the Trident passenger plane, development cost a fortune as it was designed and built specifically to BEA’s (British Airways predecessor) specifications. Its size was what BEA and BEA alone wanted so we built it that way, low and behold we couldn’t sell it to anyone else. The Americans took, what was essentially the Trident design and built the Boeing 727, they made it the size airlines wanted and sold 1832 of them, how many Tridents did we build ? – 117 !!
Often we couldn’t get the money side to match the development, how many British built projects have been cancelled because the investment needed to develop them was unpredictable or even unquantifiable and ended up shooting through the roof ?
Computer Says No
Instead of learning from all this and developing the next range of products the investment stopped, the accountants, the banks and the bean-counters got involved. This all coincided with the advancement of today’s risk averse culture. You can’t do anything these days without a risk assessment and if “Computer Says No” then it doesn’t happen.   
The over-riding issue with the UK economy is lack of any real growth. However the Left dress it up, this growth isn’t going to be brought about by a bit of government spending or moving public money around. The reason Britain lacks any major growth, is due to the culture of risk aversion, which has seeped into all areas of society, including the economy.
The UK also needs to drop the ridiculous notion of ‘sustainability’ if we want to see real economic growth. Sustainability by its very definition sustains what we’ve got.  We don’t want to sustain the UK economy in its present state; we want real growth that will lift us out of it.
Risk Aversion
Many businesses are no longer prepared to take the risks needed to recreate a dynamic economy with a thriving manufacturing base. Risk aversion means businesses would rather shuffle their money around the financial and property markets, rather than take a real risk by putting it towards large-scale capital investments, and research & development. These investments may, sometimes reap big returns; the rewards for success can be great. They may also bring a loss and that is simply unacceptable in today's Britain, so the risk isn’t taken, the opportunity is stifled at birth.
This conclusion hasn’t been arrived at on a whim; it’s backed up by fact. The country’s business’ refusal to take risks with their money can easily be demonstrated by the simple fact that UK businesses have approximately £60 Billion in cash sitting on their balance sheets, not doing anything productive.
Good Capitalist Principles
I was always taught that a capitalist economy relies on risk taking entrepreneurs putting themselves and their money on the line in order to create more money. This is totally the opposite of the risk adverse climate that exists in the UK today.
This culture of risk aversion is prevalent in the UK’s private sector, with the refusal to build the third runway at Heathrow, or the floundering over building new nuclear power stations because there’s too much risk in the tariff the Government will pay the power companies. What the power companies should be doing is building them themselves and setting their own tariff instead!!
Until we see a major cultural shift away from risk aversion, we won’t see a return to the dynamic economy, with the real growth we all crave. This government needs to lead by example, ‘Call Me Dave’ needs to get his head out of his arse and be a REAL Prime Minister, he needs to provide REAL leadership to the country, something that has been sadly lacking from him and his predecessor. Despite proclaiming he isn’t, Dave is a ditherer who tries to please all the people all the time, this is evidenced by the number of U-Turns he’s made.
Dave's Moment
Mr Cameron, now is your moment, you’ve two years left to LEAD us, show your true Tory credentials by empowering the private sector to ditch the risk assessments, the risk analysts and the computers that say No (removing the shackles of our EU membership would also help) and create some real growth that won’t just sustain us but turn us into the world beaters we once were.  
You should be encouraging the UK private sector to take full advantage of the new shale gas reserves in the North West, and not listen to the professional, comfy shoe wearing, Guardian reading, scare-mongering greens amongst us. The construction of ‘Boris Island’ in the Thames, or a new look into the third runway at Heathrow would not go a miss. Neither would an increase in investment (not just tax breaks) for research and development, in an attempt to boost Britain’s highly skilled manufacturing sector. If you don’t, these highly skilled guys will go elsewhere and bring wealth to other countries who are prepared to invest in them.
!!! Something needs doing now !!!

We used to develop and build cars, trains, planes and ships, we don’t anymore. Excessive risk aversion just stifles innovation, invention, development and ultimately growth, it’s a culture that needs eradicating.

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