Crimea: I Think Russia’s Right On This One

Like most of us, I’ve watched what’s gone on in the Ukraine with Crimea and Russia over the last few weeks with interest. Are we on the brink of World War 3 or maybe a new Cold War? Will the Ukraine and Crimea go their separate ways? What will the West do? Or will it all just fizzle out into nothing?

A History Lesson

Crimea is located on the northern coast of the Black Sea; it’s currently under the jurisdiction of Ukraine and has a history of over 2000 years. Apart from a brief spell in the WWII when Germany occupied it, Crimea has largely come under Russian control since the 18^th Century. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed it became part of independent Ukraine, as the Autonomous Republic Crimea.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet had long been based in Crimea and remained there after independence; however this caused numerous tensions between the two countries up until 1997. Following the ratification of the May 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership on friendship and division of the Black Sea Fleet, international tensions slowly eased off. With the treaty, Moscow recognized Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity, and accepted Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea and Sevastopol. In a separate agreement, Russia was to receive 80% of the Black Sea Fleet and use of the military facilities in Sevastopol on a 20-year lease So Crimea has a long history of being a Russian territory and over half the population are ethnic Russians.

In February, the democratic national government in Ukraine was ousted after days of armed violence in Kiev and replaced with unelected radical self-proclaimed rulers. Generally, we all know what happened after that!

Undoubtedly, Russia appears to have illegally occupied Crimea. But as history suggests, there’s more to it than that!

Since When Did We Back Mob Rule?

The Ukrainian president, Viktor Yamukovych was kicked out of office by a mob. Horrible though he might be, Yanukovych was democratically elected. And much though the West might sympathise with the Ukrainian protesters, angry that Yanukovych vetoed closer ties with the EU, when did we decide that mob rule was favourable to democracy? Hmmm, never.

The EU isn’t innocent in all this, appearing to encourage this mob rule to get them another member state. But they forget there are a whole load of people in the East of Ukraine as well as Crimea who are appalled at what happened to their elected government. The West of course, felt it had to take sides in a battle which is nothing to do with them, slowly though, they seem to be going into reverse as they realise what taking sides involves.

Illegal Occupation?

The Ukraine and the West argue that the Russians have occupied Crimea illegally. Russia however, says it does not recognize the newly installed unelected self-proclaimed government in Kiev and claims it is simply responding to requests from the both the democratically elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, "for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness" on the peninsula; which, makes Russian intervention lawful under current treaties.

Guys, they’ve got a point. I’m with Russia on this one. They’re protecting their own people from, what is still mob rule. Things moved on further in the last week when the Crimean parliament voted to ask Russia for re-unification, which if granted by Russia would then be presented to the Crimean electorate next week.

Of course, the newly self-installed, unelected, radical self-proclaimed Ukrainian government, says this democratic move has no legal grounds – like they’re organisation actually does?? The situation is confounded even further as the Crimean parliament does not consider the unelected self-proclaimed Ukrainian government as legitimate, which they are absolutely right not to as they’re an illegal self-installed body.

Sanctions? – Nah!!

While the West tries to talk tough about hitting Russia with sanctions, we all know in Europe that ain’t going to happen because we potentially lose too much ourselves then. The biggest issue is that a significant proportion of our gas comes from Russia via pipelines that cross the Ukraine. If Russia (or the Ukraine for that matter) close those valves, we’ve got a problem. The Germans are in a similar to boat to us here.

There’s also our ‘other’ trade with Russia. In the past year alone, the UK has flogged the Russkies £86 million worth of sniper rifles, laser sights and ammunition and there’s 271 more lucrative deals in the pipeline. It’s not just us, the French are so upset with the Russian occupation of Crimea that they’re about to sell Mr Putin two huge battleships for almost a billion quid!!!

So, while we try and talk tough about economic sanctions, it’s just empty words. We know it, and Russia knows it too. This makes the rhetoric from the likes of William Hague and other Western politicians utterly laughable.

Leftards Don’t Know Where They Stand Anymore

This whole episode has created a quite extraordinary (and amusing) situation for the left wingers. It’s lead to many of them sitting on their hands. They’re confused! Do they support their beloved EU and the rebels who have taken over the Ukraine by violent means removing a democratically elected government? Or do they support Russia, their mothership who espouses the Stalinist doctrine they look to impose on us all.

Of course, they say they’re in favour of ‘democracy’, when in fact they are apologists for a blatant coup against an elected government by an armed mob. They also say they are against interference in other countries, but they excuse the blatant intervention of foreign politicians on the side of the Ukrainian rebels.   

Looking wider, they lack consistency they’re concerned about Mr Putin and his dangerous and dishonest government. But they don’t moan about China, which is a far more repressive regime.

So many contradictions, I’d hate to be left-wing, arguing with myself.

A New Cold War?

The episode has raised the spectre of a new Cold War. I don’t think we’re in immediate danger of Crimea sparking anything like that, but Russia are flexing their muscles more and more and shouldn’t be underestimated. It started with their war against an independent Georgia a few years ago, and then there was Chechnya, now Ukraine. We’re also seeing more ‘testing’ of our air and sea defences by the Russian military like the old Soviets used to do.

What is worth considering though is whether the dismantling of our armed forces over the last twenty years to the extent they’ve been cut today a wise move? I’m beginning to think we were a little hasty, a little premature. Maybe now is the time to call a halt to these cuts and look at investment instead. As Blair, Brown and Cameron have all proved, we can always find a use for them even if we’re not fighting the Russians!

Better safe than sorry I say.